This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first four months of 2026-27 totalled £56.7 billion. This is £6.0 billion below the same period last year but £2.3 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March 2026 forecast. Central government receipts for the year-to-date are £2.8 billion above the forecast profile, primarily driven by strength in onshore corporation tax and PAYE income tax and NICs. This is offset by £5.1 billion of higher-than-forecast central government spending in the year-to-date. However, estimates of spending in the early part of the year are highly provisional and particularly prone to revision.
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Year-to-date borrowing slightly above forecast profile
21 August 2026 | Home, Monthly public finances release
This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first four months of 2026-27 totalled £56.7 billion. This is £6.0 billion below the same period last year but £2.3 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March 2026 forecast. Central government receipts for the year-to-date are £2.8 billion above the forecast profile, primarily driven by strength in onshore corporation tax and PAYE income tax and NICs. This is offset by £5.1 billion of higher-than-forecast central government spending in the year-to-date. However, estimates of spending in the early part of the year are highly provisional and particularly prone to revision.