Welfare fraud and error rates rose sharply during the Covid pandemic in 2020-21 and 2021-22, a period which also coincided with the rollout of universal credit. Our new analysis shows that the increase was mainly driven by those making new welfare claims during the pandemic, and so was likely primarily due to temporary operational easements introduced at this time. Rates fell back to close to pre-pandemic levels by 2025-26 as this claimant group reduced within the caseload and due to new policies combating fraud. While uncertain, we expect this downward trend to continue in coming years.