Budget increases tax, spending, and headroom

We expect average GDP growth of 1½ per cent over the next five years, 0.3 percentage points slower than in March. Lower GDP growth coupled with higher forecast inflation, wages, receipts, and spending results in a modest deterioration in the pre-measures fiscal position, with borrowing £6 billion higher and the current surplus reduced to £4 billion in 2029-30. Against this backdrop, the Budget delivers a frontloaded increase in spending of £9 billion and backloaded increase in taxes of £26 billion. This doubles the current surplus to £22 billion in 2029-30 but also leaves debt 2 per cent of GDP higher than in March.