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13 March 2019

Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2019

In December 2019, we restated our March 2019 borrowing forecast to include recent ONS statistical changes but did not incorporate any other new data, new judgements nor include an update to the economy forecast. The fiscal forecasts within this document subsumes those in the Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2019 below.

pdf

Restated March 2019 forecast

December 16, 2019 – 377.37 KB

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 13 March 2019 in the March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2019

March 13, 2019 –

In Chapter 2, we begin by looking at the main developments since our last forecast and the latest external forecasts for the UK economy. The latest outturns give us a starting point for our forecasts.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU, our latest forecast changes in light of recent developments and the effect of policies in the Spring Statement.

Chapter 4 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 5, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy. We also test the sensitivity of our fiscal forecasts in an alternative economic scenario.

Annex A covers the Spring Statement 2019 policy decisions and Annex B explains the accounting treatment of student loans and it effect on the public finances.

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At a glance

Forecast in pictures
Graphics showing GDP growth
Bar charts showing borrowing forecasts
Performance against the fiscal targets checklist

Supporting documents

  • pdf

    March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook – Executive summary

    March 13, 2019 –
  • xlsx

    March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook – charts and tables: fiscal

    March 13, 2019 –
  • xlsx

    March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook – charts and tables: economy

    March 13, 2019 –
  • xlsx

    March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary fiscal tables: expenditure

    March 13, 2019 – 421.07 KB
  • xlsx

    March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary fiscal tables: receipts and other

    March 13, 2019 – 330.57 KB
  • xlsx

    March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary economy tables

    March 13, 2019 – 403.77 KB
  • pdf

    March 2019 Devolved tax and spending forecasts

    March 13, 2019 – 886.67 KB
  • xlsx

    March 2019 Devolved tax and spending forecasts – charts and tables

    March 13, 2019 – 751.88 KB
  • pdf

    Log of substantive contact between the Office for Budget Responsibility and Treasury Ministers and their Special Advisers and private office staff, between 29 October 2018 and 12 March 2019

    March 13, 2019 –
  • pdf

    March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook – press notice

    March 13, 2019 –

Supplementary documents

Information or data which has been released as a result of external requests, since the original publication of the main document.

  • xlsx

    Restated March 2019 forecast - charts and tables

    December 16, 2019 – 160.70 KB
  • pdf

    Restated March 2019 forecast

    December 16, 2019 – 377.37 KB
  • pdf

    VAT standard rated share - March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook

    August 21, 2019 – 53.41 KB
  • pdf

    Long-term economic determinants – March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook

    March 13, 2019 – 86.60 KB
  • xlsx

    Long-term economic determinants data – March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook

    March 13, 2019 – 82.29 KB
  • pdf

    The direct fiscal consequences of unconventional monetary policies

    March 13, 2019 – 342.52 KB

Presentations

  • pdf

    Economic and fiscal outlook speaking notes - March 2019

    March 13, 2019 – 748.27 KB
  • pdf

    Economic and fiscal outlook presentation slides - March 2019

    March 13, 2019 –

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Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2018
Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2020

Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
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  • Monthly public finance release
  • Devolution
  • All other publications

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  • Tax by tax, spend by spend
  • The economy forecast
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