In December 2019, we restated our March 2019 borrowing forecast to include recent ONS statistical changes but did not incorporate any other new data, new judgements nor include an update to the economy forecast. The fiscal forecasts within this document subsumes those in the Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2019 below.
The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 13 March 2019 in the March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.
In Chapter 2, we begin by looking at the main developments since our last forecast and the latest external forecasts for the UK economy. The latest outturns give us a starting point for our forecasts.
Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU, our latest forecast changes in light of recent developments and the effect of policies in the Spring Statement.
Chapter 4 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.
In Chapter 5, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy. We also test the sensitivity of our fiscal forecasts in an alternative economic scenario.
Annex A covers the Spring Statement 2019 policy decisions and Annex B explains the accounting treatment of student loans and it effect on the public finances.