Landfill disposals tax receipts in 2024-25 were higher than forecast. In this box, we explored the factors behind this forecast difference.
This box is based on OBR data from January 2026 .
Table A compares our February 2024 LDT forecast to outturn for 2024-25, showing outturn was £5.8 million (20 per cent) higher than forecast. Just under half of this change, £2.8 million, is due to an adjustment made by the WRA where revenues accrued in 2018-19 were received in 2024-25, along with some unauthorised disposals cases. The other half comes from modelling differences, largely in relation to non-local authority standard waste which was £2.8 million higher than forecast.
Table A: Landfill disposals tax receipts in 2024-25: forecast versus outturn
This box was originally published in Welsh taxes outlook – January 2026