Local authority revisions and lower-than-expected receipts push borrowing above forecast

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first five months of 2025-26 totalled £83.8 billion. This is £16.2 billion above the same period last year and £11.4 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The overshoot in this month’s estimates compared to our March forecast profile is primarily due to revisions which have increased estimated borrowing by local authorities so far this year. In addition, VAT and other receipts were lower-than-expected in the month of August.