Skip to main content
Office for Budget Responsibility

"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"

MENUMENU
  • Publications
      • Medium-term forecasts
      • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
      • Forecast evaluation
      • Welfare spending trends
      • Monthly commentary
      • Devolution
      • Other releases
      • Papers
  • In-depth
    • Tax by tax, spend by spend
    • The economy forecast
    • Policy costings
    • Brexit analysis
    • Brief guides and explainers
    • Forecast process and papers
    • OBR macroeconomic model
    • Box sets
  • Data
  • News
  • About
    • What we do
    • Who we are
    • Legislation and related material
    • External reviews
    • Working with Government
    • International engagement
    • Vacancies
  • FAQs
  • Contact
17 January 2017

Fiscal sustainability report – January 2017

Our 2017 Fiscal sustainability report sets out long-term projections for spending, revenue and financial transactions, and assesses whether they imply a sustainable path for public sector debt.

This FSR was due to be published in July 2016 but was delayed following the EU exit referendum result. Instead we published extracts of the FSR in our Fiscal sustainability analytical paper series in July – September 2016.
We have now moved from an annual publication timetable to biennial to align with the frequency of the ONS population projections.

 

Click here to explore the long-term projections in our interactive tool

pdf

Fiscal sustainability report – January 2017

January 17, 2017 – 2.41 MB

Supporting documents

  • pdf

    Fiscal sustainability report press notice – January 2017

    January 17, 2017 –
  • xlsx

    Fiscal sustainability report charts and tables – January 2017

    January 17, 2017 – 1.05 MB
  • xlsx

    Fiscal sustainability report supplementary data series – January 2017

    January 17, 2017 – 248.64 KB

  Previous report
Next report  

Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Box sets
  • All other publications

Boxes

Within each of our key publications we include topical ‘boxes’. These self-contained analyses are unique to this publication and tend to cover recent developments in the economy or public finances that complement the main discussion of our analyses.

Fiscal sustainability report - January 2017 | Box: 3.1 | Page: 42

Other cost pressures in the health sector

Other cost pressures in the health sector
Over the past four decades, health spending in the UK rose faster than GDP (on average in real terms) and it increased steadily in real per capita terms. Demographic change alone could have not explained these rising trends, with other factors expected to provide further upward pressures on health spending. This box summarised the key findings of our WP No. 9 that reviewed the latest evidence on demographic and non-demographic determinants of health spending in the UK and its implications for our long-term health spending projections.

Economy categories: Labour market, Population and migration

Fiscal categories: Public spending, Departmental spending, Health

Fiscal sustainability report - January 2017 | Box: 3.2 | Page: 68

Public sector net financial liabilities

Public sector net financial liabilities
At Autumn Statement 2016 the Government asked us to forecast two new balance sheet metrics: PSND excluding the Bank of England and public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL), a broader measure covering all the public sector’s financial assets and liabilities recorded in the National Accounts. This box presented our long-term projections for these two new balance sheet metrics with particular focus on PSNFL as PSND with and without the Bank of England tended to converge in our medium-term forecast and were expected to continue to do so over the long-term.

Fiscal categories: Financial transactions, Public sector net debt, Student loans, Asset Purchase Facility

Cross-cutting categories: Public sector balance sheet

Fiscal risks report – October 2016
Fiscal risk report – July 2017

Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Devolution
  • All other publications

Forecasts in-depth

  • Tax by tax, spend by spend
  • The economy forecast
  • Policy costings
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Brexit analysis
  • Forecast process and papers
  • OBR macroeconomic model
  • Box sets

About the OBR

  • What we do
  • Who we are
  • Legislation and related material
  • External reviews
  • International engagement
  • Working with Government
  • Vacancies

Transparency

  • Governance and reporting
  • Letters
  • Requests for information
  • Evidence to parliaments
  • Press notices and presentations
Follow us on Twitter, this link opens in a new window Subscribe to our YouTube Channel, this link opens in a new window Connect with us on LinkedIn, this link opens in a new window
  • Accessibility statement
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookie Policy
  • Copyright
  • Contact us
Manage cookie settings

© 2023 Office for Budget Responsibility

14T, 102 Petty France, London SW1H 9AJ
[email protected]

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Read MoreCookie settingsRejectAccept
Cookie Policy

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
CookieDurationDescription
JSESSIONIDsessionUsed by sites written in JSP. General purpose platform session cookies that are used to maintain users' state across page requests.
viewed_cookie_policy1 yearThe cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
__cfduid1 monthThe cookie is used by cdn services like CloudFare to identify individual clients behind a shared IP address and apply security settings on a per-client basis. It does not correspond to any user ID in the web application and does not store any personally identifiable information.
Others
Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
CookieDurationDescription
CONSENT16 years 8 monthsNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertising-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-first-party-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-persistent-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-session-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-strictly-necessary-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-third-party-cookies1 yearNo description
tableau_localesessionNo description
tableau_public_negotiated_localesessionNo description
_gat_gtag_UA_41824266_11 minuteNo description
Analytics
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
CookieDurationDescription
_ga2 yearsThis cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to calculate visitor, session, campaign data and keep track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookies store information anonymously and assign a randomly generated number to identify unique visitors.
_gid1 dayThis cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to store information of how visitors use a website and helps in creating an analytics report of how the website is doing. The data collected including the number visitors, the source where they have come from, and the pages visted in an anonymous form.
Performance
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
CookieDurationDescription
YSCsessionThis cookies is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos.
__utma2 yearsThis cookie is set by Google Analytics and is used to distinguish users and sessions. The cookie is created when the JavaScript library executes and there are no existing __utma cookies. The cookie is updated every time data is sent to Google Analytics.
__utmb30 minutesThe cookie is set by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to determine new sessions/visits. The cookie is created when the JavaScript library executes and there are no existing __utma cookies. The cookie is updated every time data is sent to Google Analytics.
__utmcsessionThe cookie is set by Google Analytics and is deleted when the user closes the browser. The cookie is not used by ga.js. The cookie is used to enable interoperability with urchin.js which is an older version of Google analytics and used in conjunction with the __utmb cookie to determine new sessions/visits.
__utmt10 minutesThe cookie is set by Google Analytics and is used to throttle request rate.
__utmz6 monthsThis cookie is set by Google analytics and is used to store the traffic source or campaign through which the visitor reached your site.
Save & Accept
Powered by CookieYes Logo