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16 October 2012

Forecast evaluation report – October 2012

Our annual Forecast evaluation report (FER), published each autumn, examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts.

pdf

Forecast evaluation report - October 2012

October 16, 2012 – 895.93 KB

Supporting documents

  • xls

    Forecast evaluation report 2012 - charts and tables

    October 16, 2012 – 3.24 MB
  • xls

    Data sources - Forecast evaluation report 2012

    October 19, 2012 – 75.00 KB

Presentations

  • pdf

    Forecast evaluation report 2012- Briefing session slides

    October 16, 2012 – 193.28 KB

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Boxes

Within each of our key publications we include topical ‘boxes’. These self-contained analyses are unique to this publication and tend to cover recent developments in the economy or public finances that complement the main discussion of our analyses.

Forecast evaluation report - October 2012 | Box: 2.1 | Page: 16

Rewriting history: the 1990s recession and recovery

Rewriting history: the 1990s recession and recovery
Each year, the ONS publishes the National Accounts ‘Blue Book’. The revisions it contains are often a source of revisions to our subsequent forecasts. In this box, we illustrated the scope for history to be rewritten by exploring how the reported pattern of the recession and recovery of the early 1990s had evolved between the Blue Books published shortly after the recession and the most recent Blue Books available at the time.

Economy categories: Economic data revisions, Real GDP

Cross-cutting categories: Data revisions, Blue Book

Forecast evaluation report - October 2012 | Box: 2.2 | Page: 29

Flow of funds

Flow of funds
An alternative way to view the sectoral decomposition of the economy is to look at the financial balances of households, firms, government and the rest of the world. This box explored net lending by sector from 2008 to 2012, and how this compared with our June 2010 forecast

Economy categories: Sector net lending

Cross-cutting categories: Financial sector

Forecast evaluation report - October 2012 | Box: 2.3 | Page: 41

International comparisons of productivity

International comparisons of productivity
The UK, the US and Germany all saw broadly similar falls in GDP over 2009, but their labour markets responded differently. This box discussed these differences and compared the behaviour of employment, hours and productivity over this period.

Economy categories: Real GDP, Labour market, Employment and unemployment, Productivity

Cross-cutting categories: International comparisons

Forecast evaluation report - October 2012 | Box: 2.4 | Page: 55

Some recent analysis of multipliersa

To estimate the impact of a measure or package on the economy, we use a set of fiscal multipliers. This box outlined some recent research on the size of multipliers and how the multiplier varies during the economic cycle.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Government consumption

Cross-cutting categories: Fiscal multipliers

Forecast evaluation report – October 2011
Forecast evaluation report – October 2013

Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Devolution
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  • Tax by tax, spend by spend
  • The economy forecast
  • Policy costings
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Brexit analysis
  • Forecast process and papers
  • OBR macroeconomic model
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