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22 November 2017

Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2017

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 22 November 2017 in the November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview.

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2017

November 22, 2017 – 2.08 MB

In Chapter 2, we begin by looking at the main developments since our last forecast and the latest external forecasts for the UK economy. The latest outturns give us a starting point for our forecasts.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU, our latest forecast changes in light of recent developments and the effect of policies announced in the Budget.

Chapter 4 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 5, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy. We also test the sensitivity of our fiscal forecasts in an alternative economic scenario.

Annex A covers the Autumn Budget 2017 policy decisions and Annex B explains the UK’s EU contributions in our spending forecasts.

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At a glance

Forecast in pictures
Graphics showing GDP growth
Bar charts showing borrowing forecasts
Performance against the fiscal targets checklist

Supporting documents

  • pdf

    November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook – Executive Summary

    November 22, 2017 – 171.66 KB
  • xlsx

    November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook – charts and tables: fiscal

    November 22, 2017 – 1.44 MB

    Chapter 4, 5 and Annexes

  • xlsx

    November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook – charts and tables: economy

    November 22, 2017 – 1.99 MB

    Chapter 1, 2 and 3

  • xlsx

    November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary fiscal tables: receipts and other

    November 22, 2017 – 360.54 KB
  • xlsx

    November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary fiscal tables: expenditure

    November 22, 2017 – 345.63 KB
  • xlsx

    November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary economy tables

    November 22, 2017 – 396.84 KB
  • pdf

    November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook – press notice

    November 22, 2017 – 94.04 KB
  • pdf

    November 2017 Devolved taxes forecast

    November 22, 2017 – 660.59 KB
  • pdf

    Log of substantive contact between the OBR and Treasury Ministers, Special Advisers and their private office staff between 8 March 2017 and 21 November 2017

    November 22, 2017 – 62.15 KB
  • xlsx

    November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook – data sources

    January 12, 2018 – 48.31 KB

Supplementary documents

Information or data which has been released as a result of external requests, since the original publication of the main document.

  • xlsx

    Long-term economic determinants – November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook

    February 15, 2018 – 20.03 KB
  • pdf

    Long-term economic determinants – November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook

    January 25, 2018 – 87.33 KB
  • xlsx

    Household debt servicing costs – November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook

    January 23, 2018 – 79.56 KB
  • xlsx

    Housing supply forecast – November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook

    November 30, 2017 – 123.30 KB

Presentations

  • pdf

    November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook – presentation slides

    November 22, 2017 – 454.57 KB
  • pdf

    November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook – speaking notes

    November 22, 2017 – 234.04 KB

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Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Box sets
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Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2017
Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2018

Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Devolution
  • All other publications

Forecasts in-depth

  • Tax by tax, spend by spend
  • The economy forecast
  • Policy costings
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Brexit analysis
  • Forecast process and papers
  • OBR macroeconomic model
  • Box sets

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