Category Archive: Monthly public finances release

April’s public finances data provide an initial taste of the fiscal hit from the coronavirus lockdown and Government support for individuals and businesses. Tax payments received by HMRC were down 42 per cent on the same month last year, while central government spending jumped 52 per cent. As a result, the budget deficit was the…

Some initial effects of the unfolding coronavirus shock to the public finances are visible in the March cash data. Receipts fell sharply – particularly VAT, where payments have been deferred. Spending increased, in part due to the cost of business support measures. These effects have yet to feed through to the headline accruals measure of…

Very strong spending growth outweighed strong receipts growth this month, leaving the usual January surplus smaller than it was a year ago. But, over the first ten months of 2019-20, borrowing continues to rise relative to the same period year, albeit at a slower pace than is implied by our latest full-year forecast.  

Borrowing has risen so far this year, but at a slower rate than anticipated in our restated March forecast. With three months of the year to go, a number of uncertainties remain. January is a big month for receipts, while bonus season and end-year departmental spending are always sources of uncertainty.  

Borrowing has risen so far this year, but, following substantial revisions over the past two months, the year-to-date rise is now slower than the full-year rise in our restated March forecast. That said, with four months of the year to go, risks remain: January is a big month for receipts, while bonus season and end-year…

Borrowing in the first half of 2019-20 was revised down by £5.2 billion, thanks to lower central government spending and lower local authority borrowing. But it rose by £2.3 billion on a year earlier in October alone. That leaves the year-to-date deficit up £4.3 billion on the same period last year – a 10 per…

Mid-way through 2019-20, borrowing is up £7.2 billion on the same point last year, with strong growth in public spending outweighing more modest growth in receipts. Prospects for full-year borrowing will depend on the extent to which spending growth slows – as seems likely – and whether receipts growth is maintained – which depends in…

Borrowing in 2018-19 was revised up by £15.8 billion this month to £41.4 billion, thanks largely to statistical changes. These include planned improvements to the accounting treatment of student loans and a substantial correction to corporation tax data. The effect of the changes in 2019-20 leaves the deficit on course to exceed our March forecast…

Borrowing has risen relative to last year in each of the past four months. For the year to date, it is now up £6.0 billion on a year earlier – already a little above the £5.7 billion full-year rise implied by our March forecast. Spending growth has picked up to around twice the rate we…

Public sector borrowing was higher than last year, both in May and over the year to date. More materially, a forthcoming improvement in the accounting treatment of student loans will raise the measured deficit by more than £10 billion a year. This is close to our estimate from March, when we thought it would reduce…