Category Archive: Announcements

The pace of government borrowing picked up further in December to reach £34.1 billion, the highest monthly total since May. Year-to-date borrowing now stands at £270.8 billion, far exceeding the pre-virus annual record set at the peak of the financial crisis (£158 billion). The reimposition of a national lockdown in early January means prospects for the…

Our annual Forecast evaluation report (FER), examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This time we have streamlined the FER to focus on how our March 2018 and March 2019 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2019-20 fared against the outturns. The report will be published here on…

The Chancellor has announced that the Budget 2021 will take place on Wednesday 3 March. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.

Coronavirus has caused our economy to shrink 11 per cent this year – the largest drop in over 300 years. But the economy recovers its pre-virus level by the end of 2022. Support for public services, households and businesses costs £280 billion this year, pushing the deficit to £394 billion (19 per cent of GDP,…

Halfway through the 2020-21 fiscal year, cumulative borrowing has reached £208 billion, £51 billion above full-year borrowing in 2009-10 (at the peak of the financial crisis). Year-to-date borrowing is still lower than assumed in the central scenario from our Fiscal sustainability report, as both GDP and tax receipts have fared better than assumed. But with a…

Richard Hughes gives evidence to the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) for the first time as Chair of the OBR alongside Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) members Andy King and Prof. Sir Charlie Bean. The TSC raised an inquiry ‘Tax after Coronavirus’ to examine what the major pressures on the tax system are after the economic fallout…

Less than halfway through the 2020-21 fiscal year, the budget deficit has already topped full-year borrowing in 2009-10 (at the peak of the financial crisis). Despite that, year-to-date borrowing is lower than assumed in the central scenario from our Fiscal sustainability report, as both GDP and tax receipts have fared less badly than assumed. With…

Watch Robert Chote and Richard Hughes marking the OBR’s 10th anniversary and Robert’s tenure as chairman at the Society of Professional Economists webinar ‘The OBR at 10’ or download the presentation slides and accompanying speaking note.

During its first decade in operation the Office for Budget Responsibility has established itself as a fixed part of the UK’s institutional landscape, delivering high quality publications, reducing bias in official forecasts and bringing greater transparency to the public finances, according to an external review led by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. The…

The budget deficit rose sharply again in July, topping £150 billion for the year-to-date and pushing public sector net debt over £2 trillion for the first time. But year-to-date borrowing is lower than in our Fiscal sustainability report central scenario. That reflects lower departmental spending and loan guarantee write-off costs that have yet to be…