As set out in the OBR’s terms of reference, the Government is responsible for the analysis of the direct impact of policy on the public finances. The OBR provides independent scrutiny of these costings and determines any resultant impact on the economic forecast. We include an estimate of the impact of a policy measure in the public finances only when a firm policy has been announced and provides sufficient detail to quantify the effect of the policy. Accordingly, this forecast includes the impacts of the following policies where significant:

  • tax and expenditure measures that were announced and quantified at the time of the June Budget or at previous Budgets and Pre-Budget Reports;
  • measures that were announced and quantified at the Spending Review; and
  • the post Spending Review announcements on higher education funding and migration.

The projections do not include policies that are under consideration by the Government but where, at the time the forecast was completed, full details had not been announced that would allow the effects to be quantified. This includes policies such as the Universal Credit and any UK contribution to the international package of support for Ireland.