Borrowing slightly above forecast in first quarter of 2026-27

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first three months of 2026-27 totalled £57.6 billion. This is £3.7 billion below the same period last year and £2.7 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. Central government spending is £3.6 billion above forecast for the year-to-date, primarily reflecting higher debt interest spending and net social benefits. This is partly offset by stronger-than-expected receipts which are £2.4 billion above forecast profile for the year-to-date. The strength in receipts is concentrated in onshore corporation tax and personal taxes.