Author Archives: Harriet Price

The independent European Fiscal Board, created to examine the EU fiscal framework and aggregate policy stance, has reviewed the work of the OBR in its Annual Report. It argues that the OBR has retained “a high degree of public trust in its ability to provide objective assessments of the macroeconomic outlook and public finances”. Read…

Since the referendum we have incorporated Brexit into our forecasts using broad brush assumptions, but as Government policy decisions and developments begin to unfold, we look ahead to the issues we will need to consider when we refine these judgements. In our new paper, we begin to consider how our forecasts might change in this…

The latest in our series of Working Papers were published on 28 September 2018. Working paper No.13: In-year fiscal forecasting and monitoring presents our approach to in-year forecasting and monitoring of the public finances, and discusses how we assess our forecasts against the published data.   Working paper No.14: Devolved income tax: forecasting by tax bands sets…

Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal sustainability report – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

HM Treasury are legally committed to respond to our Fiscal risks report as outlined in the Charter for Budget Responsibility. On 17 July, the Treasury published their response in Managing Fiscal Risks.

A new working paper looks at alternative ways of accounting for the fiscal implications of student loans and whether alternative treatments can help us to analyse their impact on fiscal sustainability more effectively.

Our latest long-term projections again show that the ageing population and healthcare cost pressures threaten the sustainability of the public finances. The outlook is worse than last year, thanks largely to the Government’s as-yet unfunded announcement of extra health spending last month. Read the 2018 Fiscal sustainability report

The Treasury Select Committee has approved the appointment of Andy King, currently OBR Chief of Staff, to join the Budget Responsibility Committee.

Borrowing in May was down on last year, although this reflects spending data that are still very provisional. Borrowing for 2017-18 was revised down further, but again full outturns will not be available until at least September.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has nominated Andy King to join the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) and Bronwyn Curtis OBE to join the OBR’s oversight board as a non-executive member.