January surplus and revisions pull deficit further below profile

January is a big month for tax receipts, with self-assessment (SA) payments due. At £35.1 billion, SA receipts exceeded our November forecast by £5.8 billion (partly reflecting timing effects). Alongside large downward revisions to borrowing in previous months, this has left year-to-date borrowing in the first ten months of 2022-23 £22.0 billion below our forecast profile in the headline figures and £30.6 billion below profile on a like-for-like basis (correcting for a temporary difference in student loans figures).