With the Spring Budget on 6 March, we will not be publishing our usual Public Sector Finances monthly commentary. January’s outturn, including revised PAYE and NIC1 receipts, was incorporated into the Round 2 pre-measures forecast submitted to the Chancellor on 14 February.
Author Archives: Charlotte Bunney
Borrowing in April slightly above forecast
22 May 2024
Initial outturns for April 2024 suggest that borrowing was £1.2 billion (6.3 per cent) higher than our March forecast profile. This was driven by each of departmental expenditure on goods and services and spending on net social benefits coming in above forecast, and central government receipts coming in below forecast (by £0.8 billion in each…
Welfare trends report and Forecast evaluation report postponed
25 April 2024
This has been postponed in light of the announcement of a General Election on Thursday 4 July. Our 2024 Welfare trends report (WTR) will be published on 2 July. This biennial report will examine the drivers of spending on incapacity benefits. It will be released alongside the upcoming Fiscal risks and sustainability report. On 18…
Supplementary forecast information on work capability assessment reform
17 April 2024
Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for information on work capability assessment reform. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.
Supplementary forecast information on universal credit in-work and universal credit budgeting advances
27 March 2024
Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for information on universal credit in-work and universal credit budgeting advances. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.
Year-to-date borrowing lower than last year
21 March 2024
This morning’s ONS data release estimates that borrowing in the first 11 months of 2023-24 was £106.8 billion, £4.6 billion below the same period last year. Borrowing in February was £8.4 billion, down £3.4 billion on the same month last year.
Supplementary forecast information on car engine types in the fuel duty forecast and health and disability benefit spending
20 March 2024
Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for information on car engine types in the fuel duty forecast and further information on health and disability benefit spending. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.
Commentary on the public sector finances – January 2024
21 February 2024
With the Spring Budget on 6 March, we will not be publishing our usual Public Sector Finances monthly commentary. January’s outturn, including revised PAYE and NIC1 receipts, was incorporated into the Round 2 pre-measures forecast submitted to the Chancellor on 14 February.
March 2024 forecast timetable and details regarding the upcoming EFO
25 January 2024
Forecast timetable On 27 December 2023 the Chancellor announced that the Spring Budget 2024 will be held on Wednesday 6 March and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 23…
Year-to-date borrowing moves below our forecast
23 January 2024
This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first nine months of 2023-24 totalled £119.1 billion, £11.1 billion above the same period last year. This is £4.9 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our November forecast, largely due to lower than expected inflation reducing debt interest payments.
So far this year public sector borrowing remains higher than last year
21 December 2023
The ONS release this morning shows borrowing in the first eight months of 2023-24 totalled £116.4 billion, £24.4 billion above the same period last year. In the remainder of the year, we expect borrowing to rise more slowly than last year due primarily to stronger receipts.