March 2024
5 things you should know about our forecast
Richard Hughes, Chair of the OBR, explains the top 5 takeaways from our report.
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Year-to-date borrowing higher than forecast
Borrowing in the first three months of 2024-25 was £49.8 billion, £1.1 billion below the same period last year but £3.2 billion above our forecast profile. This was largely driven by highly provisional data on departmental spending returns, particularly for consumption expenditure which is £4.6 billion higher than forecast. Receipts in the first three months of 2024-25 have also been lower than expected, though by a relatively small margin of £1.7 billion or 0.7 per cent, in large part reflecting a £1.1 billion shortfall in VAT receipts. These differences were partially offset by local authorities’ borrowing coming in £3.4 billion below profile.
News
18 July 2024
The Budget Responsibility Bill
24 May 2024
Third external review of the OBR
22 May 2024
Borrowing in April slightly above forecast
9 May 2024
Monthly profiles for 2024-25
21 March 2024
Year-to-date borrowing lower than last year
27 February 2024
Welsh taxes outlook – February 2024
21 February 2024
Commentary on the public sector finances – January 2024
23 January 2024
Year-to-date borrowing moves below our forecast
Articles
Income tax and the earnings distribution
Amy Nash | 11 July 2024
In this article, we set out how we put the PAYE income tax forecast together in our biannual Economic and fiscal outlooks; how new distributional analysis of earnings informs and improves our forecast; and what our latest forecast assumes about earnings growth across the distribution.
Trends in labour market inactivity for caring purposes
Katya Ring, Holly McCurry, Rosanna Colthorpe and Joshua Rawlings | 11 January 2024
In this article, we examine the reasons for the consistent downwards trend in inactivity for caring purposes coming to an end and what it might imply for our forecast for overall labour force participation.
Dynamic scoring of policy measures in OBR forecasts
Staff of the OBR | 9 November 2023
In this article, we set out how the OBR’s economic and fiscal forecasts capture the dynamic effects of policies on the economic behaviour of people and businesses.
The OBR ready reckoner
Balint Benke and João Sousa | 12 October 2023
Our new ready reckoner allows users to obtain quick, indicative estimates of how changes in the economy affect public finances.
300 years of UK public finance data
Luke Lanskey and Conor O’Loughnan | 20 July 2023
Our new historical public finances database contains 300 years of tax, spending, borrowing and debt data. This article tells the story of government borrowing and debt since 1700 and how the level and composition of tax and spending have evolved over this period.
Featured
February 2024
Economic impact of Autumn Statement 2023 policies
Read our two papers analysing the economic impacts of the cuts to NICs and allowing full expensing of some business investments.
Key publications
Medium-term forecasts
Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.
Fiscal risks and long-term projections
Report into the main fiscal risks facing the UK and sustainability of the public finances.
Forecast evaluation
Assessment of how our forecasts compare to outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.
Welfare spending trends
An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.
Monthly commentary
Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.
Welsh taxes
We are commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes.