Database
Historical forecasts
See how our latest economy and fiscal forecasts compares to all our previous forecasts.
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The economy has proved more resilient to the shocks of the pandemic and energy crisis than we anticipated. But inflation has also been more persistent and interest rates higher than in March. Higher inflation boosts tax revenues but also welfare benefits while higher interest rates push up debt servicing. But because departmental spending is left largely unchanged, this delivers a net fiscal windfall of £27 billion. The Chancellor spends virtually all of this on a 2p cut in NICs, permanent tax relief for business investment, and further welfare reforms, leaving debt falling by a narrow margin in five years.
Database
See how our latest economy and fiscal forecasts compares to all our previous forecasts.
November 2023
Richard Hughes, Chair of the OBR, explains the top 5 takeaways from our report.
November 2023
Read the executive summary of the November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook
Staff of the OBR | 9 November 2023
In this article, we set out how the OBR’s economic and fiscal forecasts capture the dynamic effects of policies on the economic behaviour of people and businesses.
Balint Benke and João Sousa | 12 October 2023
Our new ready reckoner allows users to obtain quick, indicative estimates of how changes in the economy affect public finances.
Luke Lanskey and Conor O’Loughnan | 20 July 2023
Our new historical public finances database contains 300 years of tax, spending, borrowing and debt data. This article tells the story of government borrowing and debt since 1700 and how the level and composition of tax and spending have evolved over this period.
Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.
Annual report into the main fiscal risks facing the UK and sustainability of the public finances. This new report is an amalgamation of the FSR and FRR.
Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.
An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.
Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.
We are commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes. We formally took on this role in April 2019.