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Lower-than-expected January receipts push borrowing further above forecast
This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first ten months of 2024-25 totalled £118.2 billion. This is £11.6 billion above the same period last year and £12.8 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. The year-to-date shortfall against forecast is driven by lower-than-expected receipts, particularly self-assessed tax receipts and corporation tax, and to a lesser extent by higher borrowing by local authorities. Within central government, this shortfall increased substantially in January compared to last month mainly due to lower-than-expected self-assessed tax receipts and an upward revision to debt interest payments over the year to date.
New forecasts due 26 March
The Economic and fiscal outlook will be published on 26 March alongside the Chancellor’s Spring Statement.
The conclusions of our updated outlook for the economy and public finances will be presented by the Budget Responsibility Committee later that day.
News
20 February 2025
Welsh taxes outlook – February 2025
10 February 2025
Third external review of the OBR published
16 December 2024
Spring 2025 forecast date announced
10 December 2024
Welsh taxes outlook – December 2024
10 October 2024
Forecast evaluation report 2024
12 September 2024
Public debt projected to exceed 270 per cent of GDP by the mid-2070s
29 August 2024
Public investment and potential output
18 July 2024
The Budget Responsibility Bill
Featured
October 2024
Public investment and growth
We explore alternative scenarios for the impact of public investment on economic growth and how they relate to our central forecast in October.
October 2024
5 things you should know about our forecast
Richard Hughes, Chair of the OBR, explains the top 5 takeaways from our report.
Articles
How health status affects labour market participation
Chloe Baker and Laura Gardiner | 12 December 2024
In this article, we explore the impact of population health on the medium-term economic and fiscal outlook, highlighting the risks poor health poses to the long-term sustainability of public finances. We detail our scenarios for the effects of population health on economic and fiscal prospects, focusing on the labour market and the impact of health status on labour participation. We also discuss the implications of our findings for the interplay between health, health spending, and the economy and public finances.
Income tax and the earnings distribution
Amy Nash | 11 July 2024
In this article, we set out how we put the PAYE income tax forecast together in our biannual Economic and fiscal outlooks; how new distributional analysis of earnings informs and improves our forecast; and what our latest forecast assumes about earnings growth across the distribution.
Trends in labour market inactivity for caring purposes
Katya Ring, Holly McCurry, Rosanna Colthorpe and Joshua Rawlings | 11 January 2024
In this article, we examine the reasons for the consistent downwards trend in inactivity for caring purposes coming to an end and what it might imply for our forecast for overall labour force participation.
Dynamic scoring of policy measures in OBR forecasts
Staff of the OBR | 9 November 2023
In this article, we set out how the OBR’s economic and fiscal forecasts capture the dynamic effects of policies on the economic behaviour of people and businesses.
The OBR ready reckoner
Balint Benke and João Sousa | 12 October 2023
Our new ready reckoner allows users to obtain quick, indicative estimates of how changes in the economy affect public finances.
300 years of UK public finance data
Luke Lanskey and Conor O’Loughnan | 20 July 2023
Our new historical public finances database contains 300 years of tax, spending, borrowing and debt data. This article tells the story of government borrowing and debt since 1700 and how the level and composition of tax and spending have evolved over this period.
Key publications
Medium-term forecasts
Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.
Fiscal risks and long-term projections
Report into the main fiscal risks facing the UK and sustainability of the public finances.
Forecast evaluation
Assessment of how our forecasts compare to outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.
Welfare spending trends
An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.
Monthly commentary
Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.
Welsh taxes
We are commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes.
Papers
Briefing papers
Briefing papers describe our work and explain the material we present.
Working papers
As part of the OBR work programme we will produce working papers on topics which will inform discussion on our forecasts.
Discussion papers
The OBR publishes discussion papers to generate debate around key aspects of its work. Our occasional papers are publications that are not part of a wider set of releases.