The economy forecast ultimately reflects the judgements made by the members of the Budget Responsibility Committee, following lengthy discussions with our staff and informed by the work of outside experts and other forecasters. In putting together the forecast, we use a large-scale macroeconomic model of the economy jointly maintained and developed by the OBR and the Treasury. This does not drive the results of the forecast, but rather provides a framework to ensure that the judgements we make are mutually consistent and comprehensive and that they reflect the way in which different economic variables have behaved and interacted in the past. A framework for the joint governance, management and development of the macroeconomic model is set out in a Memorandum of Understanding – the macroeconomic model.
Read more about our economy forecast in Briefing paper No.3: Forecasting the economy and on our forecast-in-depth pages. Read more about our macroeconomic model in Briefing paper No.5: The macroeconomic model.