Initial estimate of 2024-25 borrowing above forecast

This morning’s ONS release provides an initial estimate for 2024-25 public sector net borrowing of £151.9 billion. This is £20.7 billion above the previous year and £14.6 billion above our March forecast. As the ONS state, this initial estimate should be seen as provisional and is typically revised in future. However, the current difference with our March forecast is largely explained by lower-than-forecast receipts, and to a lesser extent by higher-than-forecast borrowing by local authorities and spending by central government.