Policy costings

During the run-up to Budgets and other policy statements, we subject the Government’s draft costings of tax and spending measures to detailed challenge and scrutiny. We then state in the Economic and fiscal outlook and the Treasury’s costing documents whether we endorse the costings that the Government finally publishes as reasonable central estimates. Our approach to the costings process, including the roles of the Treasury and other relevant departments, and how we incorporate the impact of policy measures in our forecasts is described in Briefing Paper No.6: Policy costings and our forecast. We have also written a small number of working papers on evaluating costings and forestalling.

At each fiscal event, we produce an annex in the Economic and fiscal outlook on the announced policy measures since the previous event and an accompanying uncertainty ratings database where we assign each certified policy costing a subjective uncertainty rating. We also update our database of policy measures since 1970.

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Policy measures database

November 24, 2022 – 1.66 MB
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Policy costings uncertainty ratings database

March 15, 2023 – 208.79 KB

  • November 2016

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Autumn Statement 2016 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Autumn Statement 2016 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • March 2016

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2016 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2016 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • November 2015

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Spending Review and Autumn Statement 2015 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Spending Review and Autumn Statement 2015 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2015 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • July 2015

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Summer Budget 2015 were scrutinised and all-but-one were certified as reasonable, central estimates. All were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Summer Budget 2015 document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our July 2015 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • March 2015

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2015 were scrutinised and certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2015 document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2015 Economic and fiscal outlook, for the first time we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • December 2014

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Autumn Statement 2014 were scrutinised and certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Autumn Statement 2014 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our December 2014 Economic and fiscal outlook, for the first time we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the certified costings. For those identified as being particularly uncertain, we provided greater detail on the most important sources of uncertainty.

    Read more in the policy costings document or Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook.

  • March 2014

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2014 were scrutinised and certified. The Budget 2014 policy costings document sets out the methodologies underpinning these various costings. The OBR identified costings for policy measures which it deemed to be particularly uncertain – these are listed in annex B of the policy costings document. In this annex we also set out the policy measures which have been assumed to affect the OBR economy forecast.

    Read more in the policy costings document.

  • December 2013

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Autumn Statement 2013 were scrutinised and certified. The Autumn Statement 2013 policy costings document sets out the methodologies underpinning these various costings. The OBR identified costings for policy measures which it deemed to be particularly uncertain – these are listed in annex A of the policy costings document. In this annex we also set out the policy measures which have been assumed to affect the OBR economy forecast.

    Read more in the policy costings document.

  • March 2013

    All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2013 were scrutinised and certified. The Budget 2013 policy costings document sets out the methodologies underpinning these various costings. The OBR identified costings for policy measures which it deemed to be particularly uncertain – these are listed in annex B of the policy costings document. In this annex we also set out the policy measures which have been assumed to affect the OBR economy forecast.

    Read more in the policy costings document.

  • December 2012

    The HM Treasury Autumn Statement 2012 policy costings document sets out the methodologies underpinning the cost estimates of measures announced at this fiscal event. All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility that were included in the 2012 Autumn Statement were scrutinised and certified. The OBR has identified costings for policy measures which it deemed to be particularly uncertain – these are listed in annex B of the policy costings document.  In this annex we also set out the policy measures which have been assumed to affect the OBR economy forecast. Annex A of the document sets out in more detail the additional costs of Universal Credit as reflected in our forecast and on the scorecard.

    Read more in the policy costings document.