Author Archives: Kate Hall-Strutt

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Forecast evaluation report – January 2023

Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Tuesday 31 January. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on how our March 2022 and November 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2021-22 fared against the outturns.

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Government support drives record November borrowing

Borrowing in November was £22.0 billion, the highest November figure since monthly records began, largely thanks to a sharp rise in public spending due to the cost of energy and cost-of-living support schemes introduced this year. Borrowing in the first eight months of 2022-23 was £7.8 billion below our November forecast profile published today, largely…

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Monthly profiles for 2022-23

We have published updated monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2022-23 consistent with our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.

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Supplementary forecast information on Ofgem price cap

Since the publication of our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our Ofgem price cap forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2022 EFO page.

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Supplementary forecast information on emissions trading scheme receipts

Since the publication of our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our emissions trading scheme receipts forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2022 EFO page.

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Exchange of letters between Lord Bridges and Richard Hughes

On 18 November, the Chair of the Economic Affairs Committee, Lord Bridges of Headley MBE sent a letter to Chair Richard Hughes regarding the OBR’s welfare spending forecasts. Richard Hughes replied with further information on 25 November. Both letters are available below.  

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Supplementary forecast information: welfare spending

Since the publication of our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our welfare spending forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2022 EFO page.

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Budget deficit starts rising again in October

Government borrowing in October 2022 was £13.5 billion, £4.4 billion higher than last year – thanks to the first payments from two energy support schemes for households. But year-to-date borrowing of £84.4 billion is down £21.7 billion (20.5 per cent) on last year – thanks to stronger tax receipts and no spending on Covid schemes,…