Author Archives: Kate Hall-Strutt

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Year-to-date borrowing remains above forecast

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first four months of 2024-25 totalled £51.4 billion. This is £0.5 billion below the same period last year and £4.7 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The difference with our forecast profile is driven primarily by higher-than-forecast consumption spending by government departments…

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Third external review of the OBR

The Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011 states that the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) non-executive committee must appoint a person or body at least once in every 5-year period to review and report on the Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR’s non-executive members have commissioned Laura van Geest to lead the third external…

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Monthly profiles for 2024-25

We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2024-25, consistent with our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.

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Supplementary forecast information on fuel duty receipts by vehicle type

Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast of fuel duty receipts by vehicle type. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.

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First estimate of 2023-24 borrowing higher than forecast

The ONS’s initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2023-24 is £120.7 billion (4.4 per cent GDP), a £7.6 billion (5.9 per cent) decrease on the previous year. This is £6.6 billion (5.8 per cent) higher than our March forecast. This difference is largely driven by the initial estimate of central government receipts, which is…

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Two new articles on the economic impacts of Autumn Statement 2023 policies

In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), we analysed the economic impacts of the Government’s cuts to NICs and allowing full expensing of some business investments. We have published two papers providing further detail on the modelling behind our analysis below and on the November 2023 EFO page.

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Strong receipts keep borrowing below profile

Borrowing in the first five months of 2023-24 totalled £69.6 billion, £19.3 billion above the same period last year but £11.3 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£12.6 billion above profile), reflecting stronger nominal tax bases. This was partly…

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Tom Josephs appointed to the Committee

The Treasury Select Committee has today approved the appointment of Tom Josephs to the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC), following a hearing before MPs on 5 September. Tom will formally begin his appointment later this month, replacing Andy King who stepped down at the end of August. We thank Andy King for his 10 years of…

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Supplementary forecast information on our long-term fiscal projections

Since the publication of our July 2023 Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) report, we have received a request for further detail on our long-term fiscal projections. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the July 2023 FRS page.