Author Archives: Kate Hall-Strutt

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Tom Josephs nominated to join the OBR

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has nominated Tom Josephs to join the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC). If the nomination is approved by the Treasury Select Committee, Tom will replace Andy King as the fiscal expert on the BRC later this year. Tom Josephs is currently Director of Private Pensions Policy at the Department for…

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Fiscal risks and sustainability 2023 due 13 July

Our latest report on Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) will be published on Thursday 13 July. The 2023 FRS report will focus on three current pressures on the public finances: Inactivity and health, where we will consider the role of health in explaining the recent increase in labour market inactivity, analyse its impact on tax…

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Monthly profiles for 2023-24

We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2023-24, consistent with our March 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.

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The OBR’s advisory panel – expressions of interest

The Office for Budget Responsibility established an advisory panel of leading economic and fiscal experts in 2011 to help develop and scrutinise its work programme and methods. Since the establishment of the panel, we have held regular meetings in which we have discussed the content of each of our core publications, as well as the…

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Energy support measures raise borrowing in February

Government borrowing in February 2023 was £16.7 billion, up £9.7 billion on last year, largely thanks to spending on energy schemes. Year-to-date borrowing of £132.2 billion is up £15.5 billion (13.2 per cent) on last year. But it is only up £6.9 billion (5.9 per cent) on a like-for-like basis (correcting for student loans figures…

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Explaining our correction to the January 2023 Monthly profiles

While not a statutory obligation of the OBR, the publication of monthly profiles for the public sector finances consistent with our most recent EFO is something we started doing in May 2020, shortly after presenting our initial Covid reference scenario in the early weeks of the pandemic. Given the extraordinary pressures that the pandemic was…

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Economic and fiscal outlook: user survey results

Over the past 18 months, we have undertaken two separate user surveys to gather feedback on the length, content, and accessibility of our Economic and fiscal outlooks (EFOs). This article reports on the main messages from those surveys and how we plan to respond. December 2021 survey Our first user survey was conducted over December…

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January surplus and revisions pull deficit further below profile

January is a big month for tax receipts, with self-assessment (SA) payments due. At £35.1 billion, SA receipts exceeded our November forecast by £5.8 billion (partly reflecting timing effects). Alongside large downward revisions to borrowing in previous months, this has left year-to-date borrowing in the first ten months of 2022-23 £22.0 billion below our forecast…

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Non-executive member of the Office for Budget Responsibility

Candidates for a non-executive member of the OBR are sought to replace Sir Christopher Kelly, whose second term ends on 20 June 2023. This position presents a rare opportunity to play a key role in the governance of the UK’s independent fiscal council, which operates at the heart of the UK Government’s fiscal policy framework….

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March 2023 forecast timetable

On 19 December the Chancellor announced that the Spring Budget 2023 will be held on Wednesday 15 March and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.