Over the past 18 months, we have undertaken two separate user surveys to gather feedback on the length, content, and accessibility of our Economic and fiscal outlooks (EFOs). This article reports on the main messages from those surveys and how we plan to respond. December 2021 survey Our first user survey was conducted over December…
Author Archives: Kate Hall-Strutt
Explaining our correction to the January 2023 Monthly profiles
10 March 2023
While not a statutory obligation of the OBR, the publication of monthly profiles for the public sector finances consistent with our most recent EFO is something we started doing in May 2020, shortly after presenting our initial Covid reference scenario in the early weeks of the pandemic. Given the extraordinary pressures that the pandemic was…
Economic and fiscal outlook: user survey results
2 March 2023
Over the past 18 months, we have undertaken two separate user surveys to gather feedback on the length, content, and accessibility of our Economic and fiscal outlooks (EFOs). This article reports on the main messages from those surveys and how we plan to respond. December 2021 survey Our first user survey was conducted over December…
January surplus and revisions pull deficit further below profile
21 February 2023
January is a big month for tax receipts, with self-assessment (SA) payments due. At £35.1 billion, SA receipts exceeded our November forecast by £5.8 billion (partly reflecting timing effects). Alongside large downward revisions to borrowing in previous months, this has left year-to-date borrowing in the first ten months of 2022-23 £22.0 billion below our forecast…
Non-executive member of the Office for Budget Responsibility
16 February 2023
Candidates for a non-executive member of the OBR are sought to replace Sir Christopher Kelly, whose second term ends on 20 June 2023. This position presents a rare opportunity to play a key role in the governance of the UK’s independent fiscal council, which operates at the heart of the UK Government’s fiscal policy framework….
March 2023 forecast timetable
19 January 2023
On 19 December the Chancellor announced that the Spring Budget 2023 will be held on Wednesday 15 March and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.
Forecast evaluation report – January 2023
19 January 2023
Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Tuesday 31 January. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on how our March 2022 and November 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2021-22 fared against the outturns.
Government support drives record November borrowing
21 December 2022
Borrowing in November was £22.0 billion, the highest November figure since monthly records began, largely thanks to a sharp rise in public spending due to the cost of energy and cost-of-living support schemes introduced this year. Borrowing in the first eight months of 2022-23 was £7.8 billion below our November forecast profile published today, largely…
Monthly profiles for 2022-23
21 December 2022
We have published updated monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2022-23 consistent with our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.
Supplementary forecast information on income streams subject to self-assessment income tax
14 December 2022
Since the publication of our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information into our forecast of income streams subject to self-assessment income tax. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2022 EFO page.
Supplementary forecast information on income tax and National Insurance contributions
8 December 2022
Since the publication of our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our income tax and National Insurance contributions forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2022 EFO page.