This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first four months of 2024-25 totalled £51.4 billion. This is £0.5 billion below the same period last year and £4.7 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The difference with our forecast profile is driven primarily by higher-than-forecast consumption spending by government departments…
The Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011 states that the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) non-executive committee must appoint a person or body at least once in every 5-year period to review and report on the Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR’s non-executive members have commissioned Laura van Geest to lead the third external…
We have published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), below and on the March 2024 EFO page. These economic determinants that underpin our long-term fiscal projections are used by organisations inside and outside government to inform their own long-term modelling.
We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2024-25, consistent with our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.
Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast of fuel duty receipts by vehicle type. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.
The ONS’s initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2023-24 is £120.7 billion (4.4 per cent GDP), a £7.6 billion (5.9 per cent) decrease on the previous year. This is £6.6 billion (5.8 per cent) higher than our March forecast. This difference is largely driven by the initial estimate of central government receipts, which is…
In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), we analysed the economic impacts of the Government’s cuts to NICs and allowing full expensing of some business investments. We have published two papers providing further detail on the modelling behind our analysis below and on the November 2023 EFO page.
Borrowing in the first five months of 2023-24 totalled £69.6 billion, £19.3 billion above the same period last year but £11.3 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£12.6 billion above profile), reflecting stronger nominal tax bases. This was partly…
The Treasury Select Committee has today approved the appointment of Tom Josephs to the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC), following a hearing before MPs on 5 September. Tom will formally begin his appointment later this month, replacing Andy King who stepped down at the end of August. We thank Andy King for his 10 years of…
Since the publication of our July 2023 Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) report, we have received a request for further detail on our long-term fiscal projections. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the July 2023 FRS page.
Author Archives: Kate Hall-Strutt
Year-to-date borrowing remains above forecast
21 August 2024
This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first four months of 2024-25 totalled £51.4 billion. This is £0.5 billion below the same period last year and £4.7 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The difference with our forecast profile is driven primarily by higher-than-forecast consumption spending by government departments…
Third external review of the OBR
24 May 2024
The Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011 states that the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) non-executive committee must appoint a person or body at least once in every 5-year period to review and report on the Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR’s non-executive members have commissioned Laura van Geest to lead the third external…
Supplementary forecast information release: Long-term economic determinants – March 2024
16 May 2024
We have published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), below and on the March 2024 EFO page. These economic determinants that underpin our long-term fiscal projections are used by organisations inside and outside government to inform their own long-term modelling.
Monthly profiles for 2024-25
9 May 2024
We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2024-25, consistent with our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.
Supplementary forecast information on fuel duty receipts by vehicle type
25 April 2024
Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast of fuel duty receipts by vehicle type. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.
First estimate of 2023-24 borrowing higher than forecast
23 April 2024
The ONS’s initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2023-24 is £120.7 billion (4.4 per cent GDP), a £7.6 billion (5.9 per cent) decrease on the previous year. This is £6.6 billion (5.8 per cent) higher than our March forecast. This difference is largely driven by the initial estimate of central government receipts, which is…
Two new articles on the economic impacts of Autumn Statement 2023 policies
8 February 2024
In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), we analysed the economic impacts of the Government’s cuts to NICs and allowing full expensing of some business investments. We have published two papers providing further detail on the modelling behind our analysis below and on the November 2023 EFO page.
Strong receipts keep borrowing below profile
21 September 2023
Borrowing in the first five months of 2023-24 totalled £69.6 billion, £19.3 billion above the same period last year but £11.3 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£12.6 billion above profile), reflecting stronger nominal tax bases. This was partly…
Tom Josephs appointed to the Committee
7 September 2023
The Treasury Select Committee has today approved the appointment of Tom Josephs to the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC), following a hearing before MPs on 5 September. Tom will formally begin his appointment later this month, replacing Andy King who stepped down at the end of August. We thank Andy King for his 10 years of…
Supplementary forecast information on our long-term fiscal projections
7 September 2023
Since the publication of our July 2023 Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) report, we have received a request for further detail on our long-term fiscal projections. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the July 2023 FRS page.