"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
On 16 December 2024 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 March. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 12 March: Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data The final pre-measures fiscal…
We have released additional information on the methodology and assumptions underlying our migration analysis in our 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability report (FRS). We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.
The third external review of the work of the OBR, led by Laura van Geest, will be published on Monday 10 February.
Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on the costing of changes to carried interest, non-domicile regime, and IHT on pensions measures. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.
Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on the costing of changes to agricultural and business property reliefs and capital gains tax measures. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.
This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first nine months of 2024-25 totalled £129.9 billion. This is £4.1 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. This upside surprise against profile reflects higher-than-expected borrowing by local authorities and public corporations, with central government borrowing – the largest sector – slightly below…
Since the publication of our September 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) report, we have received a request for further detail on our long-term fiscal projections. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.
Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on our carbon price forecast and detail underlying our environmental levies forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.
This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first seven months of 2024-25 totalled £96.6 billion. This is £1.1 billion above the same period last year. The year-on-year increase is driven primarily by higher central government spending, particularly departmental consumption expenditure and welfare spending. Strength in receipts compared to last year has offset a…
On 29 July 2024 the Chancellor announced that the Budget will be held on Wednesday 30 October and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 21 October: Financial market assumptions…