Author Archives: Harriet Price

Ian Blackford, MP and SNP Westminster leader, wrote to Richard Hughes on 23 September expressing the need for an urgent OBR forecast update. Richard Hughes responded on 29 September and we have published the two letters below.

We have been commissioned by the Chancellor to produce a forecast for Wednesday 23 November. That day we will release the latest outlook for the economy and public finances.

Since the publication of our March 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information into our forecast of income streams subject to self-assessment income tax. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2022 EFO page.

The Chair of the Treasury Select Committee, Mel Stride MP wrote to our Chair Richard Hughes on 23 August regarding the OBR’s preparations for a potential Emergency Budget in September. The Chair replied to his letter on 26 August. We have published both of these letters below. Richard Hughes updated Mel Stride on 29 September about…

In little more than two years, the UK economy and public finances have felt the consequences of a global health crisis caused by Covid-19, a global security crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a global energy crisis brought about by both. In a little over a decade, we have also felt the economic…

The budget deficit continued to fall in May, with year-to-date borrowing of £35.9 billion down £6.4 billion on last year. But it was £6.4 billion above our most recent forecast profile. This overshoot reflects both lower receipts and higher spending – with debt interest spending in the year to date a fifth higher than forecast…

The pandemic caused the deepest recession in the UK in living memory, prompted the largest fiscal policy response outside the World Wars, and has, so far, been followed by an unusually rapid economic recovery. The past two years also reshaped welfare spending and can be expected to continue to do so. So this year’s Welfare…

The initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2021-22 is £151.8 billion, less than half the 2020-21 figure but £24.0 billion above our March forecast (and £16.7 billion above it on a like-for-like basis). This surprise relative to forecast is largely due to higher-than-expected central government spending, which outweighed stronger-than-expected receipts. The like-for-like surprise could…

January is a big month for tax receipts, with self-assessment (SA) payments due. This year’s relate to 2020-21 liabilities – a year affected by both lockdowns and huge fiscal support. At £26.8 billion, SA receipts exceeded our forecast by £7.8 billion. That helped take the year to date receipts surplus relative to our October 2021…

Government borrowing in December 2021 was £16.8 billion, down £7.6 billion on December 2020. Year to date borrowing of £146.8 billion is down 46.8 per cent on the same period last year and is £13.0 billion below our October forecast profile. That undershoot reflects stronger than expected receipts (thanks largely to a more resilient labour…