Author Archives: Harriet Price

Overview for FRS

Overview of the July 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability

In little more than two years, the UK economy and public finances have felt the consequences of a global health crisis caused by Covid-19, a global security crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a global energy crisis brought about by both. In a little over a decade, we have also felt the economic…

Cumulative public sector net borrowing

Higher inflation pushes debt interest spending up sharply

The budget deficit continued to fall in May, with year-to-date borrowing of £35.9 billion down £6.4 billion on last year. But it was £6.4 billion above our most recent forecast profile. This overshoot reflects both lower receipts and higher spending – with debt interest spending in the year to date a fifth higher than forecast…

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Welfare trends report – May 2022

The pandemic caused the deepest recession in the UK in living memory, prompted the largest fiscal policy response outside the World Wars, and has, so far, been followed by an unusually rapid economic recovery. The past two years also reshaped welfare spending and can be expected to continue to do so. So this year’s Welfare…

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2021-22 budget deficit exceeds March 2022 forecast

The initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2021-22 is £151.8 billion, less than half the 2020-21 figure but £24.0 billion above our March forecast (and £16.7 billion above it on a like-for-like basis). This surprise relative to forecast is largely due to higher-than-expected central government spending, which outweighed stronger-than-expected receipts. The like-for-like surprise could…

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January tax receipts and debt interest far exceed forecasts

January is a big month for tax receipts, with self-assessment (SA) payments due. This year’s relate to 2020-21 liabilities – a year affected by both lockdowns and huge fiscal support. At £26.8 billion, SA receipts exceeded our forecast by £7.8 billion. That helped take the year to date receipts surplus relative to our October 2021…

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Budget deficit falling sharply thanks to strong tax revenues

Government borrowing in December 2021 was £16.8 billion, down £7.6 billion on December 2020. Year to date borrowing of £146.8 billion is down 46.8 per cent on the same period last year and is £13.0 billion below our October forecast profile. That undershoot reflects stronger than expected receipts (thanks largely to a more resilient labour…

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Spring 2022 forecast date announced

The Chancellor has announced that the Spring 2022 forecast will take place on Wednesday 23 March. That day we will release the latest outlook for the economy and public finances.

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Prof David Miles CBE appointed to the Committee

The Treasury Select Committee has today approved the appointment of Prof. David Miles CBE to the Budget Responsibility Committee, following a hearing before MPs on 15 December. David will formally begin his appointment in January, replacing Prof Sir. Charlie Bean who steps down at the end of this year. We thank Prof Sir Charlie Bean…

Overview of the October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook

The successful vaccine rollout has allowed the economy to reopen largely on schedule, despite continuing high numbers of coronavirus cases. The vaccines’ high degree of effectiveness, combined with consumers’ and businesses’ surprising degree of adaptability to public health restrictions, has meant that output this year has recovered faster than we expected in March, boosting tax…

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Register for the Economic and fiscal outlook press briefing

We will publish our latest Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) on Wednesday 27 October once the Chancellor has completed his Budget statement in Parliament. The EFO will present our latest forecast for the economy and public finances, which will include all policy measures announced since our previous forecast in March, including in the combined Spending…