"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
Since the publication of our March 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail underlying our stamp duty land tax (SDLT) forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the March 2016 EFO page.
The budget deficit in June was around £2 billion up on last year and £2 billion higher than market expectations, reflecting strong growth in departmental spending, debt interest payments and contributions to the EU. Read more
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our inaugural Fiscal risks report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
Confronted by a vulnerable fiscal position and a challenging political environment, the Government will need to review the fiscal risks that it has exposed itself to for policy reasons, to prepare for the cost of unexpected shocks and to address some long-term pressures on receipts and spending. And to do so while managing the uncertainties…
The Office for Budget Responsibility has produced regular medium-term forecasts and long-term projections for the UK public finances since 2010. We have always emphasised the uncertainty that lies around them and have quantified it in various ways. Parliament has now asked us to build on this work by producing a regular report on ‘fiscal risks’….
The Chancellor has approved the appointment of Sir Christopher Kelly as a non-executive member of the OBR. Sir Christopher will succeed Dame Kate Barker on the oversight board, which holds responsibility for managing risks and safeguarding the independence of the OBR.
Public sector net borrowing is likely to be significantly lower this year than we anticipated at the time of the Autumn Statement in November, largely reflecting one-off factors and timing effects that flatter the figures at the expense of next year. So much so, in fact, that borrowing is now forecast to rise in 2017-18…
Since the publication of our November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail underlying the alternative productivity scenarios. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the November 2016 EFO page of our website.
The ONS have announced that the publication of the second estimate of Q4 2016 GDP and associated data will brought forward one day, to 22 February 2017, in response to a request from the OBR.
We have recently launched a new area of the website that brings together a wealth of information on our economic and fiscal forecasts.