Author Archives: Damon Reynolds

Forecast evaluation report – October 2014

Our latest Forecast evaluation report focuses on developments in 2013-14, a year that saw growth pick up strongly and the budget deficit narrow further. In particular, we consider why it was that we under-estimated the pick-up in growth from early 2013, but why did the budget deficit not fall more rapidly as a consequence. We…

OBR Working Paper series

The latest in our series of Working Papers were published on 10 July 2014. Working Paper No.5 – Output gap measurement: judgement and uncertainty uses a range of methods to demonstrate the uncertainty of measuring the output gap and considers the appropriate definition in the context of examining the UK public finances.   Working Paper…

Policy Costings document March 2011

March 2011 At Budget 2011 the Office for Budget Responsibility certified all but one policy costing presented to it by the government.  All Budget 2011 costings are detailed in the HMT policy costings document.  Our approach to the certification of costings is set out in annex B of the document. Read the Policy Costings document

Policy Costings document October 2010

October 2010 The Office for Budget Responsibility certified costings for some Annually Managed Expenditure measures included within the October 2010 Spending Review. The costings we scrutinised are set out in the HM Treasury Spending Review Policy Costings document. Our certification is contained in Chapter 3. Read the Policy Costings document