Author Archives: Andy Ginever

Economic and fiscal outlook July 2015

Our latest economic and fiscal forecast shows how the new Government has used its first Budget to loosen significantly the impending squeeze on public services spending that had been pencilled in by the Coalition in March. This is being financed by welfare cuts, net tax increases and three years of higher government borrowing. The Government has delayed…

Lord Burns re-appointment

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has announced that Lord Burns has been re-appointed as a non-executive member of the OBR. Read the HM Treasury press release here

Summer Budget and Economic and fiscal outlook

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has announced that there will be a Summer Budget on Wednesday 8 July 2015. We will publish an updated forecast for the economy and public finances in our Economic and fiscal outlook alongside the statement. Reflecting this change to our usual timetable, we will publish abbreviated editions of our Fiscal sustainability and…

Policy costings document March 2015

March 2015 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2015 were scrutinised and certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2015 document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2015 Economic and fiscal outlook, for the first time we have published an assessment on the…

December 2014 Economic and fiscal outlook

Despite stronger growth, we revised up our estimate of the budget deficit for this financial year in our latest forecast. But the budget is still forecast to be back in balance by 2018-19. The Government is on track to meet its fiscal mandate and the welfare cap, but not its supplementary debt target. The main Economic…

Policy costings document December 2014

December 2014 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Autumn Statement 2014 were scrutinised and certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Autumn Statement 2014 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our December 2014 Economic and fiscal outlook, for the first time we have published…

Exchange of letters between Vince Cable and Robert Chote

Vince Cable, the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, and Robert Chote have exchanged letters on the issue of the Government’s total spending assumption for the period from 2016-17 onwards on which the OBR’s economic and fiscal forecasts are based.  

First Welfare trends report published

Our first Welfare trends report looks back at the past three decades of welfare spending and forward to prospects over the coming five years. We consider the key risks to our forecast for welfare spending, both inside and outside the Government’s ‘welfare cap’. Supporting documents can be accessed via the main Welfare trends report page…