Our economic forecasts are prepared for the purposes of forecasting the public finances. To do that we need to consider lots of detail about different aspects of the economy – in particular, unlike many forecasters, we focus a lot on how the economy will develop in cash terms as well as in real terms. Our Economic and fiscal outlook documents and supporting material present much of the information that we consider and the main judgements that underpin each forecast. Each year’s Forecast evaluation report looks back at selected forecasts to understand how and why actual developments differed from those that we expected. And there is much more information presented in our other main reports, in briefing and working papers, and in our database of previous forecasts.
We also publish the full detail of our macroeconomic model, so that others can use it if they wish – although we stress that the model is a tool that we use, while the forecast is the result of the judgements and assumptions that we feed into it. Other forecasters using the same model will almost inevitably generate different forecasts.
In the pages listed above, we describe how our economy forecast is produced and show our latest forecasts. This covers a large part of our economy forecast, but we will continue to populate these pages over time. We will endeavour to update them as soon as possible after we publish new forecasts or when other new information becomes available. And, as with all our work, we would welcome user feedback on the content and presentation of these pages to OBRfeedback@obr.uk
The following pages have not been updated for March 2018 forecasts, we will endeavour to update them as soon as possible.